Demand now swings in sharper, less predictable cycles. Transportation costs fluctuate week to week, and labor availability changes month to month. Yet retailers and suppliers are still expected to deliver precise, reliable execution with almost no margin for error.

Teams aren’t just trying to stay ahead of trends anymore; they’re trying to stay ahead of volatility. In that environment, predictability becomes a strategic asset. And across the market, retailers are already making the shift:

• They’re building more resilient and transparent supply chains designed to withstand disruption — not react to it.
• They’re tightening control and increasing item-level visibility as demand becomes harder to forecast.
• They’re using digital planning tools to stabilize inventory instead of responding to every fluctuation in real time.

In short, retailers aren’t chasing chaos anymore — they’re engineering calm. The shift toward steadier, data-driven operations is clear. Yet even as supply chains become more resilient, one quiet destabilizer remains: constant order changes.

The mid-cycle adjustments, delayed acknowledgments, quantity edits and shipment updates that happen after a truck is already rolling may seem minor on their own, but together they’re costly. They disrupt planning, confuse systems, slow execution and quietly drain cash, undermining the very stability retailers are working to build. And they happen every day, often unnoticed and almost always underestimated.

The data tells the story

When SPS Network Intelligence examined the real movement of orders across the retail network, the pattern became impossible to ignore. The analysis covered 1.2 million purchase orders, 4.8 million associated documents and $9.7 billion in merchandise volume — a scale large enough to reveal where volatility starts, how it spreads and what it ultimately costs.

Across that dataset, one signal cut through: order volatility is far more common, and far more expensive, than most teams realize.

The findings were consistent across categories and order types:

• 6.5% of total merchandise value, or $634 million, was exposed to volatility-related risk. That exposure represents inventory sitting longer, shipments moving inconsistently and cash tied up for days or weeks longer than planned.
• Every 1% reduction in volatility returned $9–10 million in cash flow back into the operation.
• Even categories known for stable, predictable demand — including grocery — showed meaningful volatility, underscoring that this isn’t an issue limited to seasonal or trend-driven businesses.

The operational consequences were equally clear.

Every small change — whether a timing update or a line-level edit — creates a series of downstream ripple effects: delayed shipments, mismatched inventory, extended dwell times and lost sales opportunities. A single mid-cycle adjustment can trigger rework across ERP, WMS, transportation and store systems.

As one retail operations leader put it: “A single delayed PO can freeze a week’s worth of sales and tie up millions in inventory.”

Volatility doesn’t just slow down one order. It compounds across the network, introducing friction at every handoff and silently pulling performance, liquidity and customer experience in the wrong direction.

Explore the complete findings in our on-demand webinar:
Pulling back the curtain on network-level volatility

What order volatility is and how it drives cost

Volatility isn’t just a process issue. It’s a financial one. At its core, order volatility is the variation or fluctuation that occurs throughout a purchase order’s lifecycle: timing updates, quantity edits, line-level changes or shipment corrections. These shifts often seem routine, but they introduce uncertainty at every step. And uncertainty creates rework, delays and added cost.

Volatility can originate from multiple touchpoints:

• Timing updates that adjust acknowledgment or ship-by dates
• Quantity changes made after the PO is issued
• Line-level edits affecting individual SKUs
• Shipment corrections made after goods have already left the warehouse

Each update triggers a downstream chain reaction. A single header-level change may force multiple revisions across ERP, WMS, carrier or 3PL systems. That rework absorbs time, slows decision-making and reduces the predictability of both shipments and inventory placement. SPS Network Intelligence found that even minor fluctuations compound as they move through the network, lengthening cycle times and increasing operational strain.

How volatility impacts financial performance

The financial impact is equally clear. When orders change mid-cycle, inventory spends more time in transition, tying up cash and extending the cash conversion cycle. Carrying costs — often 20–30% of inventory value — rise as goods sit idle or move inconsistently. Teams lean on expedited transportation to recover lost time. Missed windows introduce penalties, deductions and lost sales opportunities. The ripple effect touches every KPI:

• Delayed orders
• Higher fees
• Reduced operational efficiency
• Lower OTIF
• Narrower margins and tighter cash flow

Across $9.7 billion in analyzed order volume, SPS identified more than $600 million in merchandise value exposed to volatility risk. The pattern is direct: the more an order changes, the more value is put at risk.

This is why predictability matters more now than ever. In a market defined by thin margins, tight schedules and unpredictable demand, stability isn’t just operational efficiency — it’s liquidity, profitability and resilience.

How leaders are fighting back

Volatility has become a direct threat to profitability, especially as margins shrink and demand grows more erratic. What used to be minor exceptions now trigger downstream delays, stranded inventory and costly last-minute workarounds.

The retailers making progress have one advantage: earlier visibility into when, where and why orders are changing. With that clarity, they plan better, react faster and prevent issues before they spread.

Predictability strengthens execution by improving visibility across the PO lifecycle, reducing shipment mismatches, sharpening cash-flow accuracy and enabling clearer retailer–supplier communication. Unpredictable orders do the opposite — slowing goods midstream, weakening forecasts and compounding cost across the network.

Leading organizations counter volatility by focusing on a few core habits:

• They benchmark how often orders change and what it costs.
• They connect POs, acknowledgements, ASNs and shipments into a clear real-time view.
• They create shared accountability with suppliers to address issues early rather than react late.

These behaviors are part of a broader journey toward operational maturity. Most retailers progress through four stages of predictability, moving from reactive processes to more stable, data-driven execution. Each stage builds greater visibility, reduces variance and strengthens financial performance — especially in high-volatility environments.

Organizations that reach predictive maturity consistently see 12–18% better on-time delivery and 20–30% faster acknowledgment cycles, leading to fewer surprises, faster turns and stronger liquidity.

Predictability doesn’t remove problems — it reveals them early enough to stay in control.

The bottom line

Order volatility is the quiet force undermining even the best-built supply chains. Small changes ripple into delays, deductions and trapped cash — costing far more than most teams realize.

Leaders who take volatility seriously are already seeing the difference: fewer surprises, stronger turns, higher OTIF and more confident planning.

In a market defined by tight margins and unstable demand, predictability pays off — every single time.

Learn more with the predictability pays off analysis

Explore the research, data, and frameworks behind these findings in our new analysis,
Predictability pays off: How retail and supply chain leaders turn order volatility into a competitive advantage.

Pull back the curtain to build trust

While the news may focus on social media backlash against retailers based on customer service issues, politics or polarizing trends, what I’m excited to see in social media is a new brand vulnerability.

Companies are inviting customers behind the scenes to share how their products get to the shelves of their favorite stores. It’s driving customer affinity, and with that comes value, both in new customers and repeat purchases. Some examples:

• Betty Jo’s Ice Cream shares how they have gone from social drops to a pop-up location in their popular video.
• Kikiz Cosmeticz gained thousands of likes for sharing how they ship their orders.
• Batch Cookies celebrated their path from a farmers market tent to a new storefront.
• Bobbie Goods and Fayt racked up over 100K combined views with their warehouse tours.
• Waterbody shared how they got their skincare line sold at over 100 retail shops.
• Carpe, with over 25K TikTok followers, posts regularly from their warehouse, not only about their product but their process.

How SupplierWiki makes supply chain fun and useful

SPS Commerce is learning from this approach. At SPS SupplierWiki, we’re leaning into this trend and translating the fascinating, complex world of retail supply chains into bite-sized stories, explainers and tools.

As we dig into the details of retailer relationships, including quick explainers on how planning, compliance, and fulfillment all align, SupplierWiki brings the “how it works” magic into the mainstream.

The big idea: make supply chain the star

Supply chain is no longer something you need to hide behind your marketing, it is marketing.

By showing the behind-the-scenes work that goes into moving products to shelves, brands can spark curiosity and build loyalty. And it doesn’t look like more promotional noise.

Because when customers see what it takes to get their favorite items from the warehouse to the store shelf, they don’t just like the product, they feel part of the journey.

Start to explore and keep informed

Our online knowledge base is free and easy to browse for topics that interest you. Check out the hundreds of resources available at SupplierWiki today.

Companies like LVMH are embedding AI across their entire operations, while fast fashion players use it to accelerate everything from forecasting to logistics. Every day more brands are turning to AI to optimize production planning, predict equipment maintenance and streamline fulfillment processes.

As we’re seeing across thousands of supply chains in our network, AI isn’t just about gaining a competitive advantage anymore; today it’s table stakes.

According to Gartner’s 2025 Supply Chain Symposium, 74% of CEOs believe AI will have the most significant impact on their businesses over the next three years. But it’s critical to understand: your AI is only as good as the data you’re feeding it.

What’s working with AI today?

Every day we’re hearing about new uses of AI in the marketplace:

• Generative AI for scenario planning: Cutting edge retailers are using AI to run “what if” scenarios—simulating demand spikes, supplier issues and logistics constraints through digital twins. Instead of being stuck in reactive mode, they’re testing their responses before disruptions hit.
• Turning waste into wins: Companies are applying AI to optimize returns, cut packaging waste and forecast more precisely to avoid overproduction. Traditional cost centers of waste management and sustainability are becoming margin protection tools.
• Connected automation: From smart warehouses to exception automation, retailers are using AI to reduce manual work and simplify operations. Gartner calls out “connected supply chains” and workflow automation as must-haves for 2025.

How’s your data? A reality check

When it comes to where we see AI working in supply chains, the companies winning with AI aren’t the ones with the fanciest algorithms—they’re the ones with the cleanest, most standardized trading partner data.

And here’s why:

• Your AI may build beautiful supplier disruption models, but if the lead time data is inconsistent, its recommendations are worthless when real problems hit.
• Optimizing returns with AI should work, but without accurate item data from trading partners, AI can’t tell the difference between defects and customer preferences.
• While your customers expect flawless execution, your AI can only deliver if your partner data is consistently accurate across every single relationship.

What do you need for a better data foundation?

Across our retail supply chain network, we see that the companies who successfully apply AI are using standardized, real-time partner data. Without it, AI can’t deliver.

The foundations required for AI implementations include:

• Clean EDI data: AI systems need consistent product info, order acknowledgments and shipment notifications. When this varies across trading partners, your AI models produce unreliable outputs.
• Standardized communications: Exception automation requires partners to communicate disruptions in standard formats. Manual, inconsistent communications break AI workflows every time.
• Real-time visibility: AI lives on current information. You need up-to-the-minute partner feeds, but across diverse trading relationships, most companies can’t maintain them.

When AI ideals meet reality

While new technology is always part of the discussion in modern business, what we’re hearing about AI usage across customers is consistent: Companies start excited about the possibilities of what AI can do for them but quickly realize it won’t work without first standardizing their data.

The dilemma:

• The most sophisticated AI fails if trading partners can’t feed it accurate, timely information.
• Manual exception handling is getting replaced by automated workflows, but only when the underlying data triggers actually work.

Where are we heading?

The future of supply chains may actually be written by AI.

We’re moving toward autonomous systems that respond to disruptions without human intervention: connected ecosystems, with AI orchestrating workflows across all trading partners, and sustainable applications optimizing resource usage.

But how well this works (or not) will depend on if there’s standardized, reliable partner data.

Build your foundation now

The companies who’ll win with AI understand that AI transformation begins with better data. They’re investing in standardized trading partner data formats, real-time partner performance visibility and automated workflows that eliminate manual errors.

AI has incredible potential to transform retail supply chains. But you must have a foundation of clean, standardized and real-time supplier data.

Want to see how leading retailers are preparing their supply chains for the future? Explore our latest insights.

With an electronic data interchange (EDI) solution, you can electronically transmit documents such as orders, inventory updates, shipping notices and invoices. This not only eliminates time-consuming data-entry tasks and automates your order processes but also helps you support more clients and more retailers without adding operational strain.

But what about your customers who aren’t set up to use EDI?

If you’re like many suppliers and 3PLs, you work with a mix of retailers and clients who still send orders by PDFs, spreadsheets, emails and attachments.

Managing orders from non-EDI customers can be a step backwards into the inefficiencies of manual workflows. You have higher operational costs and an extra layer of difficulty when it comes to scaling and growing your business. Manual entry slows down receiving, creates downstream errors and adds cost to every order you handle.

There’s a better way.

SPS Commerce PDF Order Automation is the key to seamlessly processing non-EDI orders across your entire network, reducing effort, eliminating errors and enabling faster, more reliable fulfillment.

Navigating non-EDI order hassles

Once you’ve experienced smooth EDI order processing, the challenges of handling non-EDI orders feel even more painful, especially in a warehouse environment where every minute matters:

• High operational costs: Manually entering orders into your system costs you both time and resources, driving up cost per order and slowing down the floor, especially during peak volume.
• Errors and delays: The fallout of mis-keyed data for your business can be picking mistakes, incorrect shipments, chargebacks, damaged client trust and missed SLAs.
• Limited scalability: The more your business grows, the more manually processed PDFs and emails simply cannot keep pace with client onboarding or seasonal volume spikes.

Outdated workflows are what keep many operations from reaching true supply chain efficiency.

Transforming non-EDI orders with automation

When you manage your EDI processes with SPS Commerce Fulfillment, you already have access to 400+ pre-built system integrations for ERP, OMS, WMS solutions and more.

Our PDF Order Automation uses your existing Fulfillment integrations to map and translate non-EDI orders directly into your EDI workflow. AI-assisted mapping and translation seamlessly integrates your orders into Fulfillment.

With PDF order automation, you can:

• Process all orders through one automated workflow
• Reduce errors and speed up fulfillment
• Handle seasonal or rapid growth without increasing headcount
• Free your CSRs and warehouse teams to focus on strategic and revenue-generating work

As the largest retail network with 4,000+ buying organizations, SPS is uniquely positioned to automate even the most complex, multi-client order channels.

Tackling the accuracy issue: OCR versus AI

You may be wondering how this works or be skeptical about success if you’ve experienced the shortcomings of solutions that claim to automate non-EDI orders with optical character recognition (OCR).

OCR behaves like a scanner: it recognizes characters, not meaning. For 3PLs, where order accuracy determines pick efficiency and shipment correctness, that’s a problem. When an “O” becomes a “0,” your warehouse ends up picking the wrong SKU — and the cost hits your margins.

SPS PDF Order Automation is not OCR. Our solution uses AI, so instead of just reading characters, our system actually understands the structure and meaning of the documents.

Thanks to AI-assisted mapping, our solution also learns how to match the fields in each unique PDF to the fields in your order system.

This proprietary technology extracts data with near-perfect accuracy. This ensures your PDF orders are processed just like EDI orders — precisely, consistently and reliably enough for warehouse execution.

SPS PDF Order Automation delivers the highest level of accuracy and efficiency, eliminating the concerns associated with legacy OCR systems.

Weighing the need: PDF order volume

While PDF Order Automation may seem like an obvious solution for high-volume businesses, it’s also valuable for low order volumes and for warehouses with mixed clients or unpredictable order patterns.

Manual processes for smaller orders still create inefficiencies, errors and unnecessary costs. SPS PDF Order Automation reduces these burdens, providing a scalable foundation that saves time and money now while preparing your business for growth.

Leveling up: now is the time

Automating non-EDI orders isn’t just about saving time—it’s a strategic move that prepares you to move ahead in a competitive market and accelerate your growth. Leading the way with innovative automation helps you better meet customer demands, handle growing order volumes and eliminate costly errors.

Whether you’re an existing SPS customer or just starting your supply chain optimization journey, SPS PDF Order Automation is a reliable, scalable solution that eliminates inefficiencies from your non-EDI workflows and prepares your warehouse for the future.

Non-EDI orders don’t have to slow your business down. Automating these workflows enables you to process orders faster, reduce your costs and focus on your business goals.

Ready to eliminate manual PDF orders? Talk to a rep to see how PDF Order Automation fits into your operations.

At 9:46, you’re blindsided by changing requirements for another long-time customer, spiking load acceptance times. It’s an all-hands-on-deck moment, but the full consequences of the bottleneck won’t be felt until the carrier scorecards are delivered. Your teams start to worry about keeping the shipper relationship alive as they scramble to manage the chaos.

Hour by hour, the challenges that come with outdated systems and disconnected processes combine to take their toll on revenue. At the center of it all is a tangled web of slow communication, manual effort and missed insight. But even the toughest challenges carriers face can be overcome with solutions designed to help transportation companies fit into the flow of today’s supply chain.

Let’s break down where it hurts the most and how implementing new solutions could prove to be a turning point for carriers.

1: Slow tender response time

Delayed response to load tenders leads to missed opportunities, slashed revenue and eroded trust. With shippers giving preference to carriers who respond quickly, inconsistent communication damages relationships and increases the chances of being passed over entirely. The longer it takes to respond, the less likely a carrier is to win profitable loads.

That makes reducing the time from receipt to response a high priority for carriers, and as transportation companies look to process optimization to push times down, load tender responses are a prime target.

As companies evaluate options to accelerate the pace of business, leaders are turning to centralized EDI solutions that can simplify tender responses. Instead of chasing down information, dispatchers can respond to tenders within seconds, helping boost revenue and keep preferred carrier status. The benefits of implementing an EDI solution can be far-reaching, as carriers find they gain added visibility on top of improved customer relationships.

2: Delayed shipper onboarding

Onboarding new shippers can require carriers to enter a danger zone of endless emails, redundant paperwork and disconnected workflows. When carrier teams are stuck in the weeds and unable to focus on performance or relationship-building, shippers experience downhill delays, confusion and frustration.

Ensuring that new customers feel comfortable and your systems align can help carriers shorten time to value. But what happens when all the new business results in a mess of disconnected portals and logins? As you take on more shippers, the need to work alongside their tech stack can drag efficiency down.

Some carriers are working toward standardized forms, real-time data validation and automatic system updates to reduce friction and error, but increasing numbers of transportation companies are opting for turnkey, full-service solutions with onboarding workflows already built in. This results in shippers being onboarded in weeks instead of months, allowing carriers to grow their business without increasing manual effort.

3: Lack of TMS optimization

Operating without a TMS—or with one that’s poorly configured—leaves carriers gambling with their shipments. There’s no reliable way to manage capacity, optimize routes or track carrier performance. The result is a mixed bag of effects caused by manual processes: slow dispatching, underused resources and excessive labor costs.

But even as more carriers move to a TMS system to handle these details, barebones implementations can leave out vital features, leading to processes that are only half as powerful as they could be. As carriers work to remain relevant in a fiercely competitive industry, ensuring that their TMS is supported by solutions that streamline other areas of the business can help them stay ahead.

As carriers fight to keep pace with their peers, more powerful TMS tools will be a deciding factor in their success. A centralized EDI system can integrate seamlessly with TMS platforms, enhancing their capability by feeding them real-time data. The addition enables better automation and more accurate routing while boosting the scalability of the business as a whole.

4: Weak shipper scorecard results

Without clear, trackable shipper scorecard metrics, performance management becomes guesswork. Are you meeting SLAs? Are certain lanes costing more than they’re worth? Without the numbers, you’re flying blind, and that’s risky, especially with shippers who expect transparency and proof of value.

Better scorecard results can strengthen partnerships with higher freight volumes and better contracts, while less desirable scorecard results can spell disaster for medium-sized carriers. But to get the best scores, it’s clear that carriers need the right solutions in place to manage common friction points that can drive scores down and leave dollars on the table.

Solutions that enable automatic metric tracking from load acceptance to delivery KPIs can best help carriers sidestep those friction points and achieve scorecard success. The result is a win-win situation: Shippers get the visibility they need, and carriers gain actionable insights to improve efficiency, win more freight and do it all with improved service quality.

5: Trouble turning growth into scale

As volume increases, so does the complexity of managing the people, systems and data needed to support a network of new customers. Without streamlined workflows, growth becomes unsustainable, leading to burnout, mistakes and customer dissatisfaction. That means operational inefficiency isn’t just holding carriers back from doing their best work day-to-day—it’s holding them back from scalable growth year-over-year.

Scaling logistics operations can be shackled by complexity as carriers expand operations to take on new business, with slowdowns surrounding billing and hiring compromising carrier revenue. As carriers manage a list of billing templates, schedules and workflows, the added complexity requires carriers to spend extra time handling shifting requirements.

The disruptions have led carriers to look for solutions that create a foundation for scalable operations by standardizing communication, automating routine tasks and consolidating fragmented customer portals. New solutions allow carriers to grow without having to chase down updates, reconcile documents or respond to avoidable exceptions, leaving teams to focus on strategy and service.

The turning point

The challenges facing transportation companies today are more about structure than speed. A centralized, full-service solution offers a framework for running leaner, faster and more resilient operations, and it shows in our original example:

It’s 9:03 a.m. and a high-priority customer posts a shipment that’s bid, accepted and off the dock faster than ever. Your team is on top of every reply and all your customers experience an onboarding workflow that’s fast and standardized. Drivers are busy, and every requirement is managed without extra personnel to manage it all. The upcoming scorecards look great, and you’re looking forward to taking on even more shipments next quarter as the excellent results keep rolling in.

Sound too good to be true? SPS for 3PLs Transportation Solution can get you there. In a business where every delay costs money and every inefficiency compounds, carriers who focus on modernizing their workflows can gain margin and momentum. That’s why SPS for 3PLs Transportation Solution was made to help carriers work at the pace of today’s supply chain and offer a standout customer experience in the process. Learn more here.